• As APC battles internal divisions and the opposition searches for a credible path back to power, Kwarans face a familiar but fundamentally different political choice ahead of 2027.
In 2019, Kwara State witnessed one of the most significant political realignments in its history. What began as a growing desire for political change eventually became popularly known as “Otoge” — a movement that successfully challenged the long-standing Saraki political structure and ushered the All Progressives Congress (APC) into power in the state.
The opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which was on the other side of that political contest, had its own slogan, “Otunya.” But at the end of the 2019 election, it was the APC-backed movement that emerged victorious.
The message from the electorate was clear: many Kwarans wanted a new political direction.
The APC presented AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq as the candidate capable of providing that new direction. Since taking office in 2019, his administration has attracted praise from several stakeholders for projects and reforms across different sectors of the state. Supporters of the governor argue that his administration has invested heavily in infrastructure, education, healthcare, civil service reforms and other areas of governance.
For them, AbdulRazaq’s years in office represent the continuation of the change that Otoge promised.
But as Kwara approaches another crucial election cycle, the political equation appears to be changing.
2026 Primaries: The Beginning of a New Battle
The APC’s 2026 primary elections have significantly altered the political landscape.
Several political figures who had expected to secure tickets to continue their political careers were unsuccessful. The development became particularly significant in the governorship contest, where Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi Salihu, Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, emerged as the APC’s governorship candidate.
The incumbent governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, is also making a transition from the executive arm to the legislature, having secured the APC ticket to contest for the Kwara Central Senatorial District.
But the primary did not end the political contest within the APC.
Some prominent aspirants and stakeholders who were unsuccessful in their attempts to secure the party’s tickets became increasingly critical of the process. Among those associated with the emerging opposition within the APC camp are Senator Salihu Mustapha, Senator Ibrahim Yahaya Oloriegbe, Senator Sadiq Umar, Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki Gambari and other political stakeholders.
What initially became known as the G15 later evolved into what is now being described as The Otoge Progressive movement.
And that development raises perhaps the biggest question of the 2027 election:
Can the APC survive the political consequences of the disagreements generated by its primary elections?
The Otoge Coalition Is Facing Its First Major Test
There is an interesting irony in Kwara’s political history.
The coalition that defeated the Saraki political structure in 2019 was itself made up of politicians, groups and ordinary citizens who had different interests but were united by a common objective.
Seven years later, some of the political actors who helped sustain the APC’s dominance are now finding themselves on different sides of an internal political struggle.
That does not automatically mean another Otoge is coming.
However, it creates the possibility of another major political realignment.
The opposition understands this perfectly.
For the PDP, the 2027 election represents an opportunity to rebuild a political structure that has struggled to recover from its 2019 defeat. The party is expected to capitalize on APC disagreements and convince voters that the political circumstances that produced Otoge have changed.
The emergence of Engr. Kale Kawu Daniya Ngeri of Ilorin as the PDP’s governorship candidate adds another dimension to the contest.
With the APC candidate, Rt. Hon. Engr. Yakubu Danladi Salihu, coming from Kwara North and the PDP candidate coming from Kwara Central, the issue of zoning, regional balance and political representation will inevitably become part of the conversation.
But geography alone will not determine the election.
The candidates will still have to convince voters that they possess the competence, political structure and vision required to govern Kwara.
Salihu Mustapha and the Battle for Kwara Central
Another particularly interesting contest could emerge in Kwara Central.
Senator Salihu Mustapha, who lost the APC ticket during the political realignment, has now secured an opposition ticket to return to the race for the Kwara Central Senatorial seat.
That creates a potentially dramatic contest involving the governor himself.
AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, having secured the APC ticket for the same senatorial district, could face the man who currently represents the district under the APC banner.
If that contest materialises, it will be more than a conventional senatorial election.
It could become a referendum on the APC’s internal politics, AbdulRazaq’s record in office and the strength of the emerging Otoge Progressive movement.
Can PDP Really Reclaim Kwara?
The PDP undoubtedly sees an opening.
But taking advantage of APC’s internal disagreements is one thing; converting those disagreements into electoral victory is another.
The PDP will need to answer difficult questions.
Can it build a sufficiently strong grassroots structure across the three senatorial districts?
Can it convince voters who supported the APC in 2019 and 2023 to change direction?
Can it present a candidate and political message capable of competing with the APC’s incumbency advantage?
And perhaps most importantly, can the opposition transform the anger of dissatisfied APC members into a broader movement among ordinary voters?
These questions will determine whether 2027 becomes a genuine political earthquake or simply another competitive election.
AbdulRazaq’s Legacy on Trial?
For the APC, the argument will be considerably different.
The party will likely campaign on continuity.
After seven years in office, the administration can point to its record and argue that the state should not abandon a government that has already established a development trajectory.
The APC’s challenge, however, is that governance achievements do not automatically translate into political loyalty.
Voters may appreciate infrastructure and other government programmes while still becoming dissatisfied with internal party politics, candidate selection, representation or the direction of the next administration.
This makes the 2027 election unique.
It may not simply be a contest between APC and PDP.
It could become a contest between continuity and change within the broader political coalition that produced Otoge.
Another Otoge or the Beginning of a New Era?
The biggest mistake would be to assume that history must repeat itself.
The 2019 Otoge movement was created under a particular political circumstance. The political environment of 2027 is different.
In 2019, the dominant political question was largely about ending a political structure that had controlled Kwara politics for years.
In 2027, the question may be more complicated:
Has the APC delivered enough to retain the confidence of Kwarans, or have internal disagreements created the opportunity for another political realignment?
The opposition will undoubtedly try to present 2027 as another opportunity for political change.
The APC, on the other hand, will seek to convince voters that the state should continue on the path established since 2019.
Meanwhile, the emerging Otoge Progressive movement could become the wild card that determines how the contest unfolds.
If the dissatisfied APC stakeholders remain divided, the ruling party may retain its advantage.
If they unite and successfully mobilise their structures and supporters behind an alternative political platform, the 2027 election could become significantly more competitive.
And if the PDP succeeds in attracting those dissatisfied forces while simultaneously rebuilding its grassroots support, Kwara could once again witness a major political realignment.
The Final Question
In 2019, Kwarans asked:
“Otoge — enough is enough. Is it time for a change?”
In 2027, the question may be different:
“Has the change delivered what we expected, and should we continue with it?”
That is the real battle ahead.
The next election may determine not only who occupies the Government House in Ilorin, but also whether the political coalition that created Otoge can reinvent itself, whether the opposition can regain relevance, and whether AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s political legacy will continue beyond his administration.
For now, one thing is certain:
Kwara 2027 is no longer simply about who will succeed AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. It is becoming a battle over the political legacy of the Otoge era itself.
And when Kwarans finally go to the polls, they will have the final word.
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